Monday, April 25, 2011

Severe weather and flooding likely.

848

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
646 PM CDT MON APR 25 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PADUCAH HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
  FRANKLIN COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS...
  HAMILTON COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS...
  JEFFERSON COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS...
  PERRY COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS...
  WAYNE COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS...
  EAST CENTRAL BOLLINGER COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...
  CAPE GIRARDEAU COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...
  MISSISSIPPI COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...
  NEW MADRID COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...
  SCOTT COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...
  ALEXANDER COUNTY IN SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...
  JACKSON COUNTY IN SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...
  JOHNSON COUNTY IN SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...
  MASSAC COUNTY IN SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...
  POPE COUNTY IN SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...
  PULASKI COUNTY IN SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...
  SALINE COUNTY IN SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...
  UNION COUNTY IN SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...
  WILLIAMSON COUNTY IN SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...
  BALLARD COUNTY IN WESTERN KENTUCKY...
  CARLISLE COUNTY IN WESTERN KENTUCKY...
  FULTON COUNTY IN WESTERN KENTUCKY...
  HICKMAN COUNTY IN WESTERN KENTUCKY...
  MCCRACKEN COUNTY IN WESTERN KENTUCKY...

* UNTIL 1245 AM CDT.

* AT 634 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING VERY HEAVY FLOODING RAINS
  WERE MOVING INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE WARNED AREA. RADAR
  ESTIMATES RAINFALL RATES AS MUCH AS ONE TO TWO INCHES AN HOUR.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE...
  CAPE GIRARDEAU...
  JACKSON...
  SIKESTON...
  NEW MADRID...
  MOUNT VERNON...
  PINCKNEYVILLE...
  FAIRFIELD...
  WEST FRANKFORT...
  CARBONDALE...
  HERRIN...
  MARION...
  HARRISBURG...
  ANNA...
  VIENNA...
  CAIRO...
  METROPOLIS...
  PADUCAH...
  LA CENTER...
  BARDWELL...
  HICKMAN...

808

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSON KY HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  NORTHEASTERN BELL COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY...
  SOUTHERN BREATHITT COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY...
  SOUTHEASTERN CLAY COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY...
  HARLAN COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY...
  SOUTHWESTERN KNOTT COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY...
  EAST CENTRAL KNOX COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY...
  LESLIE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY...
  WESTERN LETCHER COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY...
  EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN OWSLEY COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY...
  PERRY COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY...

* UNTIL 845 PM EDT

* AT 757 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DESTRUCTIVE WINDS
  IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH.  THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
  EXTENDING FROM SALT GUM TO GARDNER TO SANDY FORK TO SAYLOR TO
  GOLDEN ASH TO SNEEDVILLE...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH. NICKEL
  SIZE HAIL MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY THESE DAMAGING WINDS.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  HYDEN...HAZARD...HINDMAN...BLACKJOE...MERNA...ASHERS FORK...
  QUEENDALE...FLAGLER...ICE CLIFF...SPRUCE PINE...BOBS CREEK...MARY
  HELEN...COXTON...BLEDSOE...ROARK...INCLINE...BRIGHTSHADE...
  BROOKSIDE...WARBRANCH AND AGES.

746

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSON KY HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  BELL COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY...
  SOUTHEASTERN CLAY COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY...
  WESTERN HARLAN COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY...
  EAST CENTRAL KNOX COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY...
  SOUTHERN LESLIE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY...
  EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN LETCHER COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY...

* UNTIL 800 PM EDT

* AT 723 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN
  EXCESS OF 70 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR MIDDLESBORO...AND
  MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH. NICKEL SIZE HAIL MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY
  THESE DAMAGING WINDS.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  PINEVILLE...HARLAN...DAVISBURG...BINGHAMTOWN...MELDRUM...HUTCH...
  FERNDALE...CLEAR CREEK SPRINGS...EAST PINEVILLE...WASIOTO...
  CALVIN...WALLSEND...FOURMILE...CUBAGE...VARILLA...STRAIGHT CREEK...
  OAKS...CARY...MIRACLE AND ARJAY.


603
PDS(particularly dangerous situation) tornado watch until 1200 AM CDT








































538

























 ANOTHER WW IS LIKELY ACROSS MS VALLEY REGION E AND NE OF WW 205.
   
   SVR TSTMS OVER NERN PORTIONS AR IN WW 205 MAY BE MAINTAINED AS THEY
   MOVE NEWD INTO DESTABILIZING AIR MASS OVER THIS REGION.  MAIN
   UNCERTAINTY INVOLVES NRN EXTENT OF FAVORABLE/SFC-BASED EFFECTIVE
   INFLOW...GIVEN ROBUST STRENGTH OF COLD POOL OVER MO OZARKS AND
   LIMITED TIME FOR DESTABILIZATION TO ITS E.  SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWED
   SRN EDGE OF THAT COLD POOL FROM NEAR FLP NEWD ACROSS CARTER COUNTY
   MO THEN NWD TOWARD SWRN FRINGES STL AREA...E OF WHICH 3-4 MB/2-HOUR
   FALLS ARE FOCUSED ACROSS SERN MO/NERN AR REGION.  THIS TENDENCY IS
   CONSISTENT WITH SFC LOW SHIFT/DEVELOPMENT NEWD INTO REGION...WHILE
   RELATED ISALLOBARIC FORCING WILL MAINTAIN BACKED NEAR-SFC WINDS AND
   ENLARGED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS/TORNADO
   POTENTIAL.  DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL REMAIN SUITABLE ALSO...WITH
   EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAGNITUDES AROUND 45-55 KT.  OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...N OF
   WHICH HODOGRAPHS ARE FURTHER ENLARGED...WAS ANALYZED FROM WRN KY MCS
   SWWD ACROSS MEM AREA THEN NWWD OVER NERN AR.  HOWEVER...SFC DIABATIC
   HEATING IS DESTABILIZING AIR MASS TO ITS N SUCH THAT 500-1500 MLCAPE
   MAY DEVELOP ACROSS SERN MO INTO SRN IL AND WRN KY BEFORE SUNSET. 
   WAA WILL MAINTAIN FAVORABLE BUOYANCY IN PRE-STORM ENVIRONMENT.
_________________________________________________________________________


Good afternoon ladies and gentlemen. This is the first official post of central Kentucky Severe Weather, a collaboration between many weather lovers from this area to bring severe weather, snow, flooding, etc. pictures to you all. Today it has been sunny over a lot of the area, which is really weird. I haven't seen the sun in a while. :) We have a long few days ahead of us, so listen  up.

As I speak, isolated thunderstorms are firing up across the area as sunshine has broken out and temps are high and its REALLY humid. There is a severe thunderstorm watch out for extreme southern KY until 8 PM cdt.






























The severe weather threats will likely increase tonight, through Wednesday. The SPC has some of KY in a slight risk for tonight. Mainly areas west of I-75.























We will watch that. Everything looks great for a severe weather and flash flood event tomorrow. SPC has this outlook.






















The HPC says this about the flooding rains:

























The GFS is showing a boat load of rain falling, and at this point I am in agreeance with it. the NAM seems, for once, too underdone with this.

That is all for now, have a great day, and God bless.

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